═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ DISCOVERY WAYPOINT — ASSUMPTION MAPPING Assumption heatmap | 60–90 min | 4–10 people | Difficulty: Low discoverywaypoint.com/techniques/assumption-mapping ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ BEFORE YOU START Initiative / concept: ___________________________________ Date: _______________ Facilitator: _____________________ Decision this map informs: _____________________________ ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ASSUMPTION HARVEST [0–10 min] ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Silently. One assumption per card. Phrase as "We believe ___" (A statement that can be disproven — not a hope.) USER — Do we know who needs this? We believe users will _________________________________ We believe the primary user is ________________________ VALUE — Will they value it enough to change behavior? We believe users will adopt because ___________________ We believe the biggest pain we solve is ________________ FEASIBILITY — Can we build or deliver it? We believe we can deliver _____________________________ We believe our biggest operational risk is _____________ VIABILITY — Can the business sustain it? We believe this is viable because _____________________ We believe retention will happen if ____________________ ⚠ "We believe" phrasing is mandatory. "Our product is good" is not an assumption. Rewrite it. ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 2×2 CANVAS — Place assumptions by quadrant [10–35 min] ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── HIGH IMPACT IF WRONG │ ┌─────────────┼─────────────┐ KNOWN │ MONITOR │ TEST FIRST │ UNKNOWN (evidence │ Validate │ Critical │ (little supports) │ confidence │ unknowns │ evidence) ├─────────────┼─────────────┤ │ ACCEPT │ EXPLORE │ │ Proceed │ Low-stakes │ └─────────────┴─────────────┘ LOW IMPACT IF WRONG ⚠ Debate placement with evidence, not opinions. ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── TEST BACKLOG — Focus on TEST FIRST [35–65 min] ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── We believe: __________________________________________ Quadrant: TEST FIRST / MONITOR / EXPLORE / ACCEPT Test method: _________________________________________ Owner: _________________ Due: _______ Threshold to confirm: "We'll know this is true when ____________________" We believe: __________________________________________ Quadrant: TEST FIRST / MONITOR / EXPLORE / ACCEPT Test method: _________________________________________ Owner: _________________ Due: _______ Threshold to confirm: "We'll know this is true when ____________________" We believe: __________________________________________ Quadrant: TEST FIRST / MONITOR / EXPLORE / ACCEPT Test method: _________________________________________ Owner: _________________ Due: _______ Threshold to confirm: "We'll know this is true when ____________________" We believe: __________________________________________ Quadrant: TEST FIRST / MONITOR / EXPLORE / ACCEPT Test method: _________________________________________ Owner: _________________ Due: _______ Threshold to confirm: "We'll know this is true when ____________________" ⚠ "Threshold to confirm" is not optional. Without it, no one knows when the assumption is resolved. ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── QUALITY CHECK ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── ☐ Every assumption uses "We believe" phrasing ☐ Each TEST FIRST item has a named test method ☐ Every test has an owner, due date, and threshold ☐ Fewer than 8 items in TEST FIRST (more = not prioritized) ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── NEXT STEPS ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Action | Owner | Date ______________________________ | ___________ | ______ ______________________________ | ___________ | ______ Full facilitation guide: discoverywaypoint.com/techniques/assumption-mapping Discovery Waypoint — discoverywaypoint.com